GAZA PEACE DEAL
On October 9, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced that both Hamas and Israel had agreed to the first phase of his Gaza Peace Plan, a 20-point framework aimed at ending two years of violent conflict.
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
- The ceasefire follows intensive two-year conflict in Gaza, marked by Israeli military operations, regional instability, and a humanitarian crisis.
- Trump’s 20-point peace framework, first revealed on September 27, attempts to:
- Remove Hamas from power.
- Rebuild Gaza with international aid (led by the US).
- Create a “de-radicalised, terror-free Gaza”.
- Set the stage for eventual Palestinian self-determination under a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA).
OTHER GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES INVOLVED
- Revive the Abraham Accords.
- Draw in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
- Isolate Iran and rejectionist actors.
KEY PROVISIONS
| Stakeholder | Concessions / Gains |
| Israel | Hostage release, Gaza demilitarisation, no role for Hamas, Israeli security presence |
| Hamas (or Gaza leadership) | Amnesty offers, restoration of aid, reconstruction guarantees, no forced displacement |
| Palestinian Authority | Role in transitional governance, pending reforms |
| Arab States | Reference to Palestinian statehood pathway, interfaith dialogue, invitation to join accords |
| US | Sole leadership through “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump; US-led reconstruction plan; symbolic military presence |
CHALLENGES & CRITICISMS
Structural Weaknesses
- Excludes key players: No role for the UN, Arab League, OIC, EU, or China.
- No clear roadmap to the two-state solution.
- Hamas unlikely to disarm after surviving a two-year military onslaught.
- Reconstruction requires handling over 2 million displaced Gazans and decades’ worth of destruction.
Security Risks
- Rejectionist actors like Iran, Hezbollah, ISIS, and Al-Qaeda are not on board.
- High chance of spoilers undermining fragile arrangements.
Governance Gaps
- Creating a “Hamas-proof” Palestinian government is politically implausible.
- Reforming the PA to meet Israeli conditions while satisfying Palestinian aspirations is contradictory.
IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
- Peace in West Asia aligns with:
- Energy security (India imports ~60% of crude from region).
- Protection of Indian diaspora (~9 million in GCC).
- Trade & connectivity corridors (IMEC, INSTC).
SHOULD INDIA BE WATCHFUL?
- India must watch for:
- Potential destabilisation if the plan fails.
- Space for strategic diplomacy balancing ties with Israel, Iran, Palestine, GCC.
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