Myanmar’s civil war and India’s interests

Myanmar’s civil war and India’s interests

Context:

• In February 2021 when the Myanmar military leaders ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi there was an anticipation that the resistance movement that would subside in a few months.
• But now after nearly three years the opposition to military rule gains in strength.
• Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and the People’s Defence Forces control many towns in different parts of the Myanmar.
• Recently just a few weeks ago the Arakan Army captured Paletwa in the Chin State which lies on Myanmar’s western borders with Bangladesh and India.
• The fall of the town of Paletwa has significantly altered the dynamic between the Chin and the Arakan ethnic groups.
• A majority of Paletwa’s residents belong to the Chin ethnic community and they recognize their town as an integral part of their homeland.
• But on the other hand some in the Rakhine State, previously known as Arakan, contend that the township was historically part of the Arakan Hill Tracts during colonial rule and it should have been part of their province.
• Paletwa’s location on the western border makes it a very good launchpad for the Arakan Army to conduct its operations against the military.
• Paletwa is a commercial town on the Kaladan River, and hence any armed group with a significant presence in the town would benefit from the economic activity in the region.

India’s stake in the region:

• The developments in Paletwa will also impact the Indian government’s Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) in Myanmar which has sadly already faced significant delays.
• The Kaladan project main objective was to address the geo­economic and geo­political challenges of northeast India.
• The partition of the Indian subcontinent and the subsequent hardening of borders converted northeast India into a landlocked region.
• Transporting goods to and from northeast India via the narrow Siliguri corridor is an expensive affair and in a worst­case scenario with China there is a high possibility of movement along the corridor being adversely affected.
• Hence the Kaladan project was conceptualised as an alternative route that gives northeast India access to the sea through the project.
• India and Myanmar signed the framework agreement on the Kaladan project in the year 2008.
• However the operationalisation of the project was delayed because of rugged terrain, inadequate inter­departmental coordination, political instability and security challenges in Myanmar.
• While the Sittwe port and inland water terminal at Paletwa have been completed in the last few years, road construction is facing challenges due to the prevailing security situation in Myanmar.
• For expeditious implementation, the attitudes of the local ethnic organisations towards the Kaladan project should be taken into account.
• The people of Mizoram and their co­ethnics across the border in Chin State are interested in the expedited completion of the Kaladan project as it will boost the economic activity in the region.
• However, there is a perceived notion in India that the Arakan Army is not favourably disposed to the Kaladan project.
• Prior to the coup, numerous reports indicated that India and Myanmar have launched coordinated operations against Arakan Army units which were operating close to India’s borders near Mizoram and threatening the Kaladan project.
• In 2019 five Indian workers working on the Kaladan project were kidnapped, reportedly by the Arakan Army.
• While all the workers were released one Indian national unfortunately died in the custody of kidnappers due to a cardiac arrest.

Chinese investments and their role:

• The Arakan Army along with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, is part of the Three Brotherhood alliance and has Chinese support according to some.
• The alliance has also pledged to protect Chinese investments in Myanmar.
• There are also considerabke reports which state that the Arakan Army receives considerable funding and military equipment from China.
• If such reports are true it will be a huge concern in Delhi that Beijing is using armed groups to slow down India’s connectivity projects in Myanmar.
• Meanwhile the Chinese economic presence along Myanmar’s Bay of Bengal coast has significantly increased.
• Beijing has recently operationalised oil and natural gas pipelines from the Shwe gas fields near Kyaukpyu in the Rakhine State to Yunan province in China.
• Two months ago China signed supplementary agreements with the Myanmar military to operationalise the deep sea port and also a special economic zone near Kyaukpyu.
• Reportedly there were renewed efforts to construct a railway line from China’s Yunnan to Kyaukpyu via Mandalay as part of the famous China­Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).
• Opposite to India, China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council which prompts many state and non­state actors in need of international support to be relatively more accommodating of China’s concerns.
• Hence China is in a position to extend political and military support to various ethnic armed groups as well as to the Myanmar military to protect its economic interests.

About Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP):

• The Kaladan Road Projectis a US$484 million project which connects the eastern Indian seaport of Kolkata with Sittwe seaport in Rakhine State, Myanmar by sea.
• In Myanmar it will link Sittwe seaport to Paletwain Chin State via the Kaladan river boat route and then from Paletwa by road to Mizoram state in Northeast India.
• According to reports all components of the project, including Sittwe port and power, river dredging, Paletwa jetty, have been completed except the under construction Zorinpui-Paletwa road.
• It is noted that the route is likely to unlock tremendous economic potential for the entire Bay of Bengal peninsula, allowing a bridge between South Asia and South East Asia regions.

About India – Myanmar border:

• The India–Myanmar borderis the international border between India and Myanmar which is formerly known as Burma.
• The border is 1,643 kilometres in length and it runs from the tripointwith China in the north to the tripoint with Bangladesh in the south.
• Four Northeast Indian states share the border with Myanmar which are Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Manipur.