INDIA’S NUCLEAR ARSENALS
Why in News?
- The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its Yearbook 2025 on June 16, 2025.
- The report highlights a significant trend of nuclear modernization by all nine nuclear-armed countries.
- It notes that India has widened its nuclear lead over Pakistan in terms of warhead numbers.
- India is also making notable advancements in missile systems and delivery capabilities, strengthening its nuclear deterrence.
GLOBAL NUCLEAR LANDSCAPE
- All nine nuclear-armed states are currently upgrading their nuclear arsenals and adding new weapon systems.
- SIPRI warns that the world is entering a new and dangerous nuclear arms race, as arms control regimes weaken.
- As of January 2025, the total global nuclear warhead inventory is estimated at 12,241 warheads.
- Out of these, 9,614 warheads are in military stockpiles and considered usable.
- Around 3,912 warheads are deployed on missiles and aircraft.
- Approximately 2,100 warheads are on high operational alert, mainly in the United States and Russia.
- The post-Cold War decline in nuclear weapons is now reversing as dismantlement slows.
- The New START Treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire in February 2026, with no new agreement in place.
- China is unwilling to engage in arms control talks, further complicating the global security environment.
- Emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence and advanced missile defense systems are destabilizing traditional nuclear deterrence models.
INDIA’S NUCLEAR STATUS & TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS
- As of January 2025, India is estimated to possess 180 nuclear warheads, an increase from 172 in 2024.
- This places India ahead of Pakistan, which has 170 warheads according to SIPRI.
MISSILE TECHNOLOGY & DELIVERY CAPABILITIES
- India is developing canisterised missile systems, which allow nuclear warheads to be stored and transported already mounted in sealed containers.
- If India adopts a posture where these missiles are deployed with warheads mated, it would reflect a shift towards faster launch readiness and enhanced deterrence flexibility.
- This shift may indicate a movement away from India’s traditional de-alerted posture, where warheads and delivery systems are kept separate.
- SIPRI also notes growing speculation that India may soon equip some missiles with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs).
- MIRVs would enable a single missile to deliver multiple warheads to separate targets, significantly enhancing India’s strike capabilities and survivability in case of a first strike.
MATURING NUCLEAR TRIAD
- India’s nuclear posture continues to evolve with the strengthening of its nuclear triad, consisting of:
- Land-based ballistic missiles,
- Air-delivered nuclear weapons, and
- Nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
- India’s focus is no longer solely on Pakistan, as it is also developing longer-range delivery systems to deter China in response to Beijing’s expanding nuclear arsenal.
PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR POSTURE & STRATEGIC RISKS
- Pakistan is estimated to have 170 nuclear warheads, maintaining a stable count from the previous year.
- Despite the stable number, Pakistan continues to develop new delivery systems and produce fissile material, suggesting active expansion efforts.
- Unlike India, Pakistan does not follow a declared No First Use (NFU) policy and maintains strategic ambiguity in its doctrine.
- It places significant emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons, designed for battlefield use against India’s conventional superiority.
- This approach is seen as highly destabilizing because it lowers the threshold for nuclear use and increases the risk of early escalation in a conflict.
- Pakistan’s political instability, lack of transparency, and previous nuclear proliferation links raise serious regional and global concerns.
- SIPRI cites an incident in early 2025 where India and Pakistan briefly entered armed conflict, involving strikes on nuclear-linked military sites, and were affected by disinformation campaigns, raising fears of nuclear escalation.
NUCLEAR STATUS OF OTHER MAJOR POWERS
Russia
- Russia has the world’s largest arsenal, with approximately 5,880 nuclear warheads.
- Around 2,100 of these warheads are on high operational alert.
- Modernization continues but faces setbacks, including delays in the Sarmat ICBM
- Once the New START Treaty expires, Russia is expected to rearm empty silos and increase deployed warheads.
United States
- The US holds around 5,244 nuclear warheads.
- It is undertaking a comprehensive modernization of its nuclear triad, including new ICBMs, SSBNs, and air-launched cruise missiles.
- Budget and planning issues caused delays and cost overruns in 2024.
- The US is also developing new tactical nuclear weapons, which experts see as destabilizing.
- There is rising internal pressure to rearm deactivated missile launchers in response to China’s growing arsenal.
China
- China now possesses over 600 nuclear warheads, up from around 500 in 2024.
- It has built over 350 new ICBM silos, especially in remote regions, indicating a focus on second-strike survivability.
- China may now be keeping some warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime, marking a significant doctrinal shift.
- By 2035, China could possess 1,500 warheads, potentially rivaling the US and Russia.
France
- France maintains about 290 warheads, with minimal fluctuation.
- It is investing in the third generation of SSBNs and new air-launched cruise missiles.
- President Macron has proposed extending French nuclear protection to EU allies, which could affect NATO dynamics.
United Kingdom
- The UK is estimated to have 225 warheads, with plans to increase this number.
- It is building four new SSBNs to ensure continuous at-sea deterrence.
- This marks a shift away from earlier disarmament policies.
Israel
- Israel is believed to have between 80 and 90 nuclear warheads, maintaining official ambiguity.
- It continues to upgrade its missile capabilities and nuclear infrastructure.
- These developments are particularly important amid tensions with Iran, which has made notable progress in uranium enrichment.
North Korea
- North Korea has around 50 assembled nuclear warheads, with material for up to 90 in total.
- It is actively developing tactical nuclear weapons and short-range delivery systems.
- Leader Kim Jong Un has called for “limitless” expansion of the nuclear programme.
- The absence of crisis communication channels makes the region highly vulnerable to miscalculation and unintended escalation.
WHY THESE NUMBERS MATTER?
Breakdown of Global Norms
- The erosion of long-standing arms control frameworks has created a more volatile global security environment.
- The focus of major powers has shifted from disarmament to modernization and expansion.
India-Pakistan Dynamics
- India’s growing nuclear lead and advanced technologies strengthen its credible deterrence posture.
- The development of canisterised systems and MIRVs may signal a shift toward a quicker response doctrine.
- Pakistan’s continued reliance on tactical nukes raises the risk of early use and nuclear escalation.
India-China Strategic Competition
- China’s rapid nuclear expansion forces India to modernize and expand its long-range capabilities.
- India must prepare for a two-front deterrence strategy, maintaining stability with both Pakistan and China.
Escalation and Technology Risks
- Regional conflicts (like Israel-Iran or India-Pakistan) risk triggering nuclear confrontation.
- The development and deployment of tactical nuclear weapons lower the threshold for use.
- The integration of AI and automated systems into nuclear command structures could reduce decision-making time and increase the chance of miscalculation.
CHALLENGES TO DISARMAMENT
- SIPRI notes that global disarmament efforts are being undermined by a renewed focus on nuclear buildup.
- The credibility of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is increasingly under threat.
India’s Responsible Role
- India continues to follow its No First Use policy and aims to maintain Credible Minimum Deterrence.
- However, its evolving posture and new technologies show a more flexible and responsive strategy, balancing national security with global responsibility.
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