SHIFT IN SAUDI ARABIA’S FOREIGN POLICY

SHIFT IN SAUDI ARABIA’S FOREIGN POLICY

WHY IN NEWS ?

• Saudi Arabia, a nation with a foreign policy which has always centred around Iran, is now reaching out to old rivals.
• It is also holding talks with new enemies and seeking to balance between great powers.

IS SAUDI ARABIA MOVING AWAY FROM USA ?

• For Saudi Arabia, the U.S. remains its largest defence supplier. The Kingdom is also trying to develop advanced missile and drone capabilities to counter Iran’s edge in these areas with help from the U.S. and others.
• But at the same time, the Saudis realise that the U.S.’s deprioritisation of West Asia is altering the post­-War order of the region.
• What Saudi Arabia is trying to do is to use the vacuum created by the U.S. policy changes to autonomise its foreign policy.
• De-­Americanisation of West Asia is not a Saudi goal. Rather it is trying to exploit America’s weakness in the region.
• The kingdom is trying to establish its own autonomy by building better ties with Russia and China and mending relations with regional powers without completely losing the U.S.
• The early signs of this autonomisation was visible in Saudi Arabia’s recent decisions.

SHIFT IN SAUDI’S FOREIGN POLICY

SAUDI ARABIA- RUSSIA ANGLE:

• Saudi Arabia refused to join anti­-Russia sanctions.
• Despite protests from Washington, Saudi Arabia joined hands with Russia to effect oil production cuts twice since the Ukraine war began.
• The move was aimed at keeping the prices high which would help both Moscow and Riyadh.

BALANCING U.S.- CHINA:

• It has also built stronger trade and defence ties with China, and the Iran reconciliation deal, under China’s mediation, announced Beijing’s arrival as a power broker in West Asia.
• At the same time, Saudi Arabia has placed orders for Boeing aircraft worth $35 billion and entered into conditional talks with the U.S. on normalising ties with Israel.

HOW THE CHANGE IN SAUDI’S FOREIGN POLICY ?

• For years, the main driver of Saudi foreign policy was the kingdom’s hostility towards Iran.
• This has resulted in proxy conflicts across the region.
• Last month, Saudi Arabia announced a deal, after China­mediated talks, to normalise diplomatic ties with Iran.
• Soon after, there were reports that Russia was mediating talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria, which could lead to the latter re-­entering the Arab League.
• Earlier this week, a Saudi­-Omani delegation travelled to Yemen to hold talks with the Houthi rebels for a permanent ceasefire.
• All these moves mark a decisive shift from the policy adopted by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman after he rose to the top echelons of the Kingdom in 2017.
• Aggressiveness makes way for diplomacy and loyal alliances make room for pragmatic realignments.
• This is happening at a time when Saudi Arabia is also trying to balance between the U.S., its largest arms supplier, Russia, its OPEC­Plus partner, and China, the new superpower in the region.

CHALLENGES BEFORE SAUDI ARABIA

• As the Saudis are trying to build cross ­gulf stability, another part of West Asia remains tumultuous.
• It was evident in the Israeli raid at Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa, Islam’s third holiest place of worship, last week.
• This triggered rocket attacks from Lebanon and Gaza and in return Israeli bombing of both territories.
• Israel also keeps bombing Syria with immunity.
• The impact of escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran on cross-gulf stability remains to be seen.
• Another challenge before Saudi Arabia is to retain the course of autonomy without irking the U.S. beyond a point.

IMPLICATIONS OF THIS SHIFT ON THE REGION

• Saudi Arabia’s normalisation talks with Syria or its talks with the Houthis cannot be seen separately from the bigger picture of the Saudi­-Iran rapprochement.
• If Syria rejoins the Arab League, it would be an official declaration of victory by Mr. Assad in the civil war.
• It would help improve the overall relationship between Damascus and other Arab capitals.
• Likewise, if the Saudis end the Yemen war through a settlement with the Houthis, Riyadh would get a calmer border while Tehran could retain its existing influence in the Saudi backyard.
• Such agreements may not radically alter the security dynamics of the region but could infuse some stability across the Gulf.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• In post-­War West Asia, the U.S. had been part of almost all major realignments.
• S. has been either through force or talks, from the Suez war to the Abraham Accords.
• But now, when China and Russia are mediating talks between rivals successfully and Saudi Arabia, a trusted ally, is busy building its own autonomy,
• The U.S., despite its huge military presence in the region, is reduced to being a spectator.

SYLLABUS : MAINS, GS-3, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

SOURCE: THE HINDU