Why the recent rain is no relief
Context- The first two days of May have been unusually wet. Except the northeastern states, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, the entire country has received plenty of rain, with some areas in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh getting as much as 10 to 15 times the expected rainfall.
This exceptional spell of rainfall was the result of a number of relatively local weather phenomena over different parts of the country coming together at the same time. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this spell is expected to get over by Thursday. But the unusual rainfall is also a reminder of the increasing uncertainties in weather patterns becoming evident not just in India but across the world.
(Credits- Indian Express)
Globally, the month of March this year was the second warmest March ever since the beginning of records in the mid-1800s. And an analysis in Carbon Brief, a climate change focused online publication in the UK, said the year 2023 was shaping up to become one of the top four warmest years on record, citing the rapid development of the El Nino event, which has an overall warming impact on the planet.
How much is India warming up?
- The increase in temperatures evident all over the world is being experienced in India too, though at a slightly lower level than the global average.
- The year 2022, for example, was 1.15 degree Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times (the average temperature of 1850-1900 period) and was the fifth or sixth warmest year on record.
- In India, average temperature in 2022 was 0.64 degree Celsius higher than normal (average of 1981-2010 period). The difference from the pre-industrial temperatures is not clear, but the warming over India is known to be lower than the global average.
- The most comprehensive assessment of India’s climate, done by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in 2020, had shown that average annual mean temperatures in India had risen by about 0.7 degree Celsius from 1900. That is significantly less than the global rise in temperatures, which has exceeded one degree Celsius for several years now.
- The warming over the seas around India has been much higher. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean have risen by almost one degree Celsius between 1950 and 2015, this assessment said, and were projected to increase even further.
(Credits- Indian Express)
What about the different states in India?
- The warming over India is not uniform across regions. Some states have become much hotter than others. Last week, the IMD released state-level warming trends for the first time.
- Data from 29 states showed that temperatures in Himachal Pradesh, Goa and Kerala had increased at the rate of more than 1 degree Celsius per 100 years in the last 120 years (see box). Most of the northeastern states — Mizoram, Assam, Sikkim, Manipur, Tripura — have seen their temperatures climb at the rate of more than 0.7 degree Celsius per 100 years.
- However, the eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha have experienced the least warming. Bihar’s temperature has been nearly flat, registering a rise of just 0.02 degree Celsius over 100 years. Uttar Pradesh, with a warming of 0.13 degree Celsius, is also in the same bracket.
- Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab saw the maximum rise in temperatures last year, compared to their normal. In Uttarakhand, average annual mean temperature in 2022 was 1.17 degree Celsius higher than the average for 1981-2010 period.
Which weather event kills most people?
- For the first time, the IMD also presented data on deaths caused by extreme weather events. While heatwaves have attracted a lot of attention, lightning strikes have been killing a far greater number of people in India.
- More than 60 per cent of deaths caused by weather events in India in 2022 (1,608 out of 2,657 recorded deaths) were due to lightning strikes. Floods and extreme rainfall events claimed 937 lives. These numbers are only indicative and could be much larger, since the IMD and the state governments relied on media reports to compile the list of casualties.
Conclusion- Despite the recent showers, this year is expected to be hotter and drier. El nino which transfers warm waters to the south american coast in the pacific may reduce this year’s monsoon rainfall towards the end.
Syllabus- GS-3; Climate Change
Source- Indian Express
