BANGLADESH’S (EX) PM FLEES TO INDIA
STUDENTS PROTEST IN BANGLADESH
Bangladesh announced it will indefinitely shut down all public and private universities from Wednesday (July 17) after massive country-wide protests against a controversial quota system in government jobs have left at least six dead, and over 400 injured.
REASONS FOR PROTEST
- The protests erupted in the wake of a June 5 ruling by the Bangladesh High Court reinstating the 30% quota for freedom fighters and their descendants in government jobs, which was repealed in 2018 after a massive agitation led by students and teachers.
- Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina further added fuel to the fire by referring to the protestors as ‘razakars’, a derogatory Bangla word for ‘traitors’ — with some grim historical baggage.
THE QUOTA SYSTEM IN BANGLADESH
Government jobs, in Bangladesh, are highly coveted as a stable and lucrative source of income. Nearly 400,000 graduates compete every year for around 3,000 such jobs.
Until 2018, 56 per cent of government jobs were reserved for various categories.
- 30%: were reserved for family members of veterans who had fought for Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971.
- 10%: Women and people from underdeveloped districts.
- 5%: Members of tribal communities.
- 1%: Reserved for persons with disabilities.
This left only 44 per cent of all openings available for open admission.
WHY WAS THIS QUOTA CONTENTIOUS?
The freedom fighters’ quota was particularly contentious since many people perceived it to be favouring those loyal to Hasina’s party, the Awami League, which headed the Bangladeshi liberation struggle.
Adding to people’s frustrations were the special examinations for quota candidates, varying age limits for each category, and the fact that there remained many vacancies in quota seats even as eligible candidates in the merit list were unemployed.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR INDIA?
1: THE SITUATION IN BANGLADESH:
The country has been reeling under protests for the last month over the job quota system, and the protests had been the biggest since Hasina was re-elected for the fourth consecutive term since 2008.
She had led the country through economic growth but had also cracked down on the Opposition, media and the civil society.
This had made her unpopular, and the youth coming out on the streets was the tipping point.
2: WHAT DOES HER EXIT MEAN FOR INDIA?
Her departure after a 17-year tenure means that India has lost a trusted partner in the region. Hasina has been a friend to India, and New Delhi has worked closely with her on countering terrorist groups operating out of Bangladesh.
The partnership brought the two countries closer together, and New Delhi had given aid and assistance to Dhaka for a range of projects.
3: INDIA HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF SHAIKH HASEENA:
By being careful with its comments and insisting that the weeks of turmoil in Bangladesh was its internal matter, India has given her tacit support — her openly undemocratic ways notwithstanding.
The West has been questioning Hasina’s crackdown against civil society, the opposition, and the media, and has been calling for an end to her authoritarian style of functioning.
India’s backing of her, despite allegations of rigging in elections, has been a bone of contention between India and the West.
4: WILL INDIA INSULATE ITSELF FROM HER UNPOPULARITY?
Since she has landed in India, it would mean New Delhi will have to work towards ensuring her safety, and would face some questions from the new regime in Dhaka about giving refuge to an unpopular leader.
There is a real risk of blowback from the Bangladeshi people as well — during the years of Awami League rule, the Bangladeshi opposition has viewed India as backing Hasina, and the West as being on their side.
5: WHO WILL BE IN POWER IN DHAKA?- A MATTER OF CONCERN FOR INDIA.
What attitude they will take towards India will be critical. In the past, when Opposition parties led by BNP-Jamaat or the Army have ruled the country, India has had an unpleasant experience — with anti-India terror outfits operating across the India-Bangladesh border.
This situation could well arise again, and New Delhi cannot afford to have another front open when the LoC and the border with Pakistan is hot again, and the Indian Army is in a long standoff with the PLA in eastern Ladakh. The Myanmar border is also extremely volatile, and the source of unrest and strife in India’s Northeast.
6: WHAT WOULD BE THE ROLE OF THE ARMY CHIEF?
Ahead of his address to the nation, General Waker held a meeting at the military headquarters, at which two important leaders of the main opposition Jatiya Party were invited.
In an major development, the BNP leader Khaleda Zia, who had been arrested in a corruption case, has been released.
CONCERNS FOR INDIA
- India’s trade will be impacted.
- Anti India terrorist groups can become more active.
- More immigration into India from Bangladesh.
- More than 1 crore Hindus live in Bangladesh. They may be targeted there. They will be left with no choice except to migrate to India.
- With CAA in place, Indian citizenship laws are also inclined towards granting citizenship to non muslims from Bangladesh. This will increase pressure on India.
- Overall stability in the region will be negatively impacted.
- Crimes like Human & Drug trafficking, crimes against women, etc can increase.
WHAT CAN INDIA DO?
As of now, India has not done much except for harbouring Sheikh Hasina when she fled from Bangladesh. But India cannot shy away from the situation in the region. India is afterall ‘The Big Brother’ in the region. (although the itself is diluted by India, but the realities should not be ignored).
Following steps can be taken:
- Establish dialogue (as soon as possible) with the regime in Bangladesh.
- Strengthen Border security.
- Robust intelligence gathering & sharing.
- Give humanitarian assistance & relief to Bangladesh.
- Indulge with global stakeholders to restore normalcy in Bangladesh.
- Free & Fair democracy should be advocated as the way forward.
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