LOK SABHA ELECTION RESULTS
How will the third Narendra Modi government differ from the two previous ones that came to power in 2014 and 2019? The answer will lie in the composition of the Eighteenth Lok Sabha. Here are a few things that will change.
THE RECENT HISTORY OF COALITION GOVT.
For the better part of the last 34 years, India has been governed by a coalition of political parties. It is only in the last 10 years that a single political party — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — led a majority government at the Centre, crossing the halfway mark in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 (282) and 2019 (303).
IS THERE A NEGATIVE IMPACT OF COALITION ON WELFARE?
Be that as it may be, the biggest structural reforms and rights-based programmes happened during the last 30-plus years, the seeds of most of which were sown during the coalition era.
THE COALITION PARTNERS
The top four being:
- The Telugu Desam Party led by Chandrababu Naidu, (16)
- The Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar, (12)
- Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and (7)
- Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan. (5)
Together, these parties will bring 40 seats to the NDA. The BJP will need all these seats to comfortably go past the halfway mark of 272.
THE RISE OF REGIONAL PARTIES
From the North to the South, East to West, regional leaders have re-emerged to exert influence in the national polity.
- Chandrababu Naidu will get to wield clout as the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, and as a key partner in the BJP-led government at the Centre.
- Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav will now be heard loud and clear in Parliament. SP is the third largest party after BJP & INC in the LS.
- Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (29 seats) winning 7 seats more than in 2019, could mean that Mamata has managed to stall the BJP’s juggernaut in West Bengal.
- M K Stalin’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (22), (DMK-led alliance has retained all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.)
- The Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) with its 9 seats, and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) with 7 will lend their voice to regional aspirations, and mount pressure on the Central government by speaking up in Parliament.
A VIBRANT FEDERALISM NOW
The oft-repeated slogan of “double-engine sarkar” to garner votes during Assembly elections in states has been seen by the opposition as an affront to federalism, a basic tenet of the Constitution.
In India’s immense diversity and federal polity, the imposition of a unitary vision or formula is often unsuitable.
MORE ACCOUNTABILITY NOW
Accountability is likely to increase in all institutions from the judiciary to the auditor, from financial regulators to the election watchdog, and even the investigative agencies.
A coalition lends itself to better checks and balances, infuses oxygen into the ecosystem, and gives institutions space to innovate and push back against top-down policies of the political executive.
A STRONG OPPOSITION NOW
The Eighteenth Lok Sabha will look quite different from the Seventeenth.
- The lower numbers of the BJP will mean greater representation for Lok Sabha members from the opposition in various Parliamentary panels such as the Standing Committees and Select Committees. The opposition benches will have a much larger voice, literally.
- In Lok Sabha, speaking time on an issue is divided in proportion to the strength of parties. So, the INDIA bloc with 234 members will be allotted almost 26 minutes if the Speaker decides, for instance, to allocate an hour for discussion on a particular issue.
- It may also not be possible for the government to push through Bills without adequate debate and discussion, or to route legislation as a Money Bill, which provides a fast-track option for enactment of laws bypassing RS.
- Typically, taxation, the government’s financial obligations, consolidated fund, and related issues can be moved as Money Bills.
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