SNAP POLLS IN GERMANY
- On November 6, 2024, Germany’s ruling coalition, made up of the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP), fell apart after Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his Finance Minister, Christian Lindner (FDP).
- After this, a no-confidence vote will take place on December 16, 2024.
- Since Scholz is expected to lose without support from the FDP, snap elections are planned for February 23, 2025, earlier than the original election date in September 2025.
THE CURRENT COALITION
Germany’s coalition government, formed after the 2021 federal elections, was a three-party alliance:
- Social Democratic Party (SPD) – Center-left.
- The Greens – Left-wing.
- Free Democratic Party (FDP) – Center-right, fiscally conservative.
WHAT CAUSED THE COLLAPSE OF THE COALITION?
The current coalition has been struggling due to conflicts over important issues, especially on money matters:
- Disagreements Over Money and Spending:
- The SPD (Social Democrats) and Greens wanted to increase government spending to help with things like climate change and defense.
- However, Christian Lindner (FDP) opposed this, pushing for strict rules on borrowing money to keep government debt low.
- Tax Cuts and Budget Cuts:
- The FDP also wanted tax cuts for the rich and spending cuts in other areas, which the SPD and Greens didn’t agree with.
- These disagreements over money created tension within the coalition.
- Big Budget Problems:
- The government was already facing a multi-billion euro gap in the national budget, which made the situation even worse.
WHAT IS GERMANY’S DEBT BRAKE RULE?
Germany has a debt brake rule that limits how much money the government can borrow. The government can only borrow up to 0.35% of GDP (the total value of goods and services in the country). This rule is in the German Constitution and was created to avoid too much borrowing, which could lead to large debts in the future.
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- Exceptions to the Debt Brake: In cases of emergencies, like natural disasters or major crises, the German Parliament (Bundestag) can temporarily suspend the debt brake.
- For example, it was used during the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine war, which caused an energy crisis in Germany.
THE BUDGET CRISIS
To get around the debt brake rule, the government used some special off-budget funds to finance important projects. These include:
- Climate and transformation fund
- Economic stabilization fund
- Federal armed forces fund
These funds helped pay for things like climate change programs and defense spending. But a court ruling in November 2023 said that it was unconstitutional to move 60 billion euros of unused pandemic debt into one of these funds. This decision created a big budget problem and made the coalition even more unstable.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
- No-Confidence Vote and Snap Elections:
- The no-confidence vote will happen on December 16, 2024.
- Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to lose this vote without the support of the FDP, which has left the coalition.
- As a result, snap elections will be held on February 23, 2025, earlier than the original elections planned for September 2025.
- Rising Opposition:
- The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), which are part of the main opposition, are now leading in the polls.
- A recent survey shows that the CDU/CSU alliance has 33% of the vote, while the SPD is at only 16%.
- The Far-Right Party (AfD):
- The AfD (Alternative for Germany), a far-right party, has also been growing in popularity.
- It is now at 17% in the polls, higher than the SPD.
- The AfD recently won a state election in Thuringia, marking its first win since the Nazi era.
- The AfD has been criticized for having links to neo-Nazi groups and for pushing anti-immigrant policies.
- There are debates in Germany about whether the AfD should be banned, but no action has been taken so far.
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