THE MONSOON
On almost all days in June so far, North and Northwest India have experienced ‘heatwave’ to ‘severe heatwave’ conditions.
The southwest monsoon that made an early onset over Kerala has advanced until Maharashtra, BUT-
- It has been dry and hot over the Southern peninsula thereafter.
- The Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon too, has not progressed
- Maximum temperatures in the plains of North India have sustained around 45-47 degrees Celsius.
MONSOON BASICS & DATES
The June-September southwest monsoon brings more than 70% of india’s annual rainfall. climatologically, the monsoon arrives over the Andaman Sea in the third week of May and advances into the mainland through Kerala, June 1 being the normal date of onset.
It then advances in surges — typically, the progress until central India is fast, after which it slows down.
The monsoon normally reaches north Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and neighbourhood Areas by the end of June, and covers the entire country by July 15.
SIGNIFICANCE OF AN EARLY ONSET
An early or timely onset of the monsoon does not guarantee good rainfall or its distribution over the country throughout the four-month season. And a delayed onset does not necessarily mean below-average rainfall for the entire season.
THE FORECAST FOR 2024:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast ‘above normal’ rainfall this season. Quantitatively, it is expected to be 106% of the Long Period Average of 880 mm (1971-2020 Data).
The ‘above normal’ rainfall is being attributed mainly to:
- The soon-to-emerge La Niña conditions, which are known to positively Influence the Indian monsoon, and
- A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
LA NINA
A cooling of the ocean surface, or Below-average SSTS, in the central and Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It is associated with a comparatively better monsoon rainfall in India.
INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE
The Indian Ocean Dipole is a climate pattern affecting the Indian Ocean. During A positive phase, warm waters are pushed to the western part of the Indian ocean, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the Eastern Indian Ocean.
This pattern is reversed during the negative phase of the IOD.
WHEN COULD IT RAIN?
The monsoon is currently active over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and sub-Himalayan West Bengal.
Rainfall activity will pick up along Konkan and northern Karnataka during the latter half of this week. But all other regions of the country will remain dry.
Towards the end of this week, the monsoon could advance into the remaining areas of Maharashtra, some areas of West Bengal, Odisha, some areas of Chhattisgarh and Bihar, and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
“We expect the monsoon to revive towards the end of June,” Pai said. However, it remains uncertain when the monsoon could set in over northern India.
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